Pakistan Trade Deficit Widens 20% to $3.88 Billion in October 2026

Pakistan’s trade deficit grew by almost a fifth in October 2026. Data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Friday, 6 November, show the gap between goods imports and exports reached $3.88 billion, up 19.7% from a year earlier, because imports rose about four times faster than exports. The figures add to pressure on the country’s external accounts in the first months of fiscal year 2026-27.

What happened in October?

Pakistan imported goods worth $6.806 billion in October 2026, compared with $6.087 billion in October 2025, an increase of 11.81%, according to the PBS figures reported by Business Recorder. Exports reached $2.929 billion, up 2.84% from $2.848 billion a year earlier.

The result was a monthly deficit of $3.877 billion, against $3.239 billion in October 2025. In money terms, the gap was about $638 million wider than a year ago, The Express Tribune calculated.

The picture was also weaker than in September. Exports were almost flat month on month, rising only marginally from $2.923 billion, while imports climbed 5.72% from $6.438 billion. That pushed the deficit up 10.3% from September’s $3.515 billion.

How do the first four months of FY27 look?

The trend over the fiscal year so far is similar. From July to October 2026, the first four months of fiscal year 2026-27 (4MFY27):

Measure	4MFY27	4MFY26	Change
Exports	$11.336bn	$10.446bn	+8.52%
Imports	$25.964bn	$23.060bn	+12.59%
Trade deficit	$14.628bn	$12.614bn	+15.97%

On average, Pakistan imported about $6.5 billion of goods a month in this period and exported about $2.8 billion, The Express Tribune reported. Exports have generally stayed in a band of $2.5 billion to $3 billion a month.

Why is the gap widening?

Pakistan depends heavily on imported fuel, machinery, chemicals and food, and petroleum products make up a large part of the bill, Aaj English noted in a report carried from Business Recorder. Vehicle imports have also risen sharply. On the export side, shipments are still dominated by traditional goods such as textiles, rice, raw cotton and leather.

Waqas Ghani, head of research at JS Global, said stronger imports may partly reflect higher domestic economic activity, but the difference between import and export growth raises the country’s external financing needs. He warned that a wider goods deficit could weigh on the current account and foreign exchange reserves, especially if global energy prices stay high. In his view, “the lack of a meaningful acceleration in exports” is the main concern.

The State Bank of Pakistan expects imports to reach about $71 billion this fiscal year, driven by energy costs, while goods exports are projected at around $34 billion, up from $30.8 billion last year, according to The Express Tribune.

Why it matters

A trade deficit has to be financed, mostly by remittances from overseas Pakistanis, services exports such as IT, and borrowing. Ghani said Pakistan’s external stability will keep depending on remittances and services exports.

Borrowing needs are already large. The Express Tribune reported that the finance secretary told a parliamentary committee that external debt repayments this year are estimated at $21.5 billion, with the government planning to seek $10.5 billion in rollovers of bilateral and commercial debt. The rupee was quoted at Rs276.66 per dollar on Friday.

The export gap also matters for long-term goals. The government’s target of $60 billion in exports by 2029 is far above the current pace, and the paper noted that forecasts of 14% export growth under the trade liberalisation policy have not yet materialised.

Not all recent data have been negative. Pakistan’s stock market has drawn record numbers of new investors this year; see our report on the PSX investor base reaching 681,965.

What happens next?

The next signal will be the State Bank of Pakistan’s current account and remittance data for October, which show how much of the goods deficit was offset by money sent home by overseas workers and by services exports. Economists will also watch global oil prices, since energy is the largest swing factor in Pakistan’s import bill, and whether exporters can lift monthly shipments above the $3 billion level they have rarely crossed.